For the nation, 2020 has been one of the most difficult years in memory. We are grappling with Covid and its fallout, economic upheaval, racial tensions, wildfires, hurricanes, a presidential election, and a polarized electorate.
Despite this year’s difficulties, a strong economic recovery, record low interest rates, and an aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve have helped the major market indexes rebound from March’s steep sell-off.
But where do we go from here? What’s in store over the next four years? If we view the future through the lens of public or tax policy, visibility is extremely limited. Who will reside in the White House has yet to be determined.
If we narrow our scope and review the landscape through the lens of the investor and the market, I believe we can look to history for guidance and at least obtain some degree of clarity.
First, let me say this. No one has a crystal ball. Any stock market forecast that you may hear from analysts is simply an educated guess. They may get lucky for the right or the wrong reason. Or analysts might miss the mark by a wide margin. As we already know, even the smartest folks in the room don’t know the future.
Besides, we already know that consistently timing the market is nearly impossible.
However, over a longer period, we recognize that stocks have historically had an upward bias.
“Since 1932, the S&P 500 Index has gained an aggregate of 710% under Democratic presidents and 375% under Republican presidents. But staying invested the entire time would have earned 47,000%,” according to the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
What’s that mean? If you shunned stocks when either a Republican or Democrat was president, you missed out on the lion’s share of the market’s gain.
If we take the last 12 years into consideration, a similar pattern emerges. Those who pulled out of stocks after the 2008 election because they were discouraged by the results lost out on a significant stock market rally over the ensuing eight-year period.
Anyone discouraged by the 2016 results also failed to participate in a significant stock market rally.
A disputed election could create short-term uncertainty. Yet, emotional decisions made outside the boundaries of a well-crafted financial plan have rarely been profitable over a longer period.
Longer term, the economic environment, Federal Reserve policy and interest rates, corporate profits, and inflation trends have historically had the biggest impact on the broader market.
The country will remain divided after the final tally is known. But let’s not forget that the U.S. remains the world’s largest economy; it has the deepest and most transparent capital markets, and innovation isn’t likely to end.
We will face challenges in the days and years ahead. We have always faced challenges. But we are resilient, and I continue to believe that history is on the side of the United States of America.
Table 1: Key Index Returns
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500 Index
Russell 2000 Index
MSCI World ex-USA*
MSCI Emerging Markets*
Bloomberg Barclays US
Aggregate Bond TR
Source: Wall Street Journal, MSCI.com, Morningstar, MarketWatch
MTD return: Sep 30, 2020—Oct 30, 2020
YTD return: Dec 31, 2019—Oct 30, 2020
7 financial planning steps you can implement today
The end of the year is fast approaching. As the calendar days march toward 2021, let’s keep in mind that there are several ideas we should review as you work to get your year-end financial house in order.
While procrastination is tempting, remember how checking items off our ‘to-do’ list always gives us a sense of accomplishment.
Before we get started, the tips below are simply guidelines. Feel free to check with your tax advisor, as various nuances can crop up. As always, we would be happy to assist you.
This is the one time of year you can change your health insurance coverage or enroll. If you don’t act by December 15, you will miss out on coverage for 2021 unless you qualify for a special enrollment period. Plans sold during open enrollment start January 1, 2021.
Decide if your coverage will meet your needs during 2021. If you like what you had this year and it is still available next year, you won’t need to take any action.
Contributions to your 401(k) are automatically deducted from each paycheck. Contributions for tax year 2020 must be made by the end of the year to count against 2020 income.
The 401(k)-contribution limit is $19,500 for 2020 and the catch-up limit is $6,500.
Your employer or plan administrator will let you know if you can adjust changes to your contribution this year. As we have said in the past, we strongly suggest that you contribute the minimum amount necessary to receive your entire employer’s match. It’s free money. Don’t leave free money on the table.
Thanks to the CARES Act, the RMD is waived in 2020. This RMD waiver applies to everyone with a 401(k), IRA, 403(b) or 457(b) account. Owners of inherited IRAs may suspend RMDs for 2020, too.
If you took an RMD between January 1 and August 31, you were eligible to roll the funds back into your retirement account up until the August 31 deadline.
However, please be aware of the ‘wash sale’ rule and treatment of long-term and short-term losses. The rule defines a wash sale as one that occurs when an investor sells a security at a loss and, within 30 days before or after the sale, buys a “substantially identical” stock or security. If so, the IRS disallows the loss.
Short-term capital gains occur when an asset that is sold was held for one year or less. Short-term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income. Long-term gains are taxes at a more favorable rate.
Whether or not tax rates rise next year, a Roth IRA is an excellent retirement vehicle.
Let me remind you that these year-end financial planning steps are guidelines. One size does not fit all. The advice we recommend is tailored to your specific needs and goals. We would be happy to entertain any questions that you may have. We are simply a phone call or email away.
As we approach the Thanksgiving holidays, you should know that we are truly thankful for the loyalty, confidence and trust you have placed in us. Many of you and your families have relied on us for over 30 years. In the Spirit of Thanksgiving, we are honored to serve you and your family and give thanks for the mutual relationships we cherish.
“Enter His gates with Thanksgiving and His courts with praise; give thanks to Him and praise His name.” Psalms 100:4
Blessings and Peace,
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Investable Market Index (IMI) captures large, mid and small cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the United States) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 6,211 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index’s three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of William Y. Rice III and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Unless certain criteria are met, Roth IRA owners must be 59½ or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted. Additionally, each converted amount may be subject to its own five-year holding period. Converting a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA has tax implications. Investors should consult a tax advisor before deciding to do a conversion. Matching contributions from your employer may be subject to a vesting schedule. Please consult with your financial advisor for more information.