Despite repeatedly denying he had any designs on his neighbor, Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine late last month.
Conditions on the ground are quite fluid, and we won’t delve into military strategy.
What we can offer is a sobering perspective for those who are suffering in Ukraine. As I was flipping through the TV channels the other night, I was quite aware that what is happening in my home doesn’t compare to what’s happening in the homes of moms, dads, sons and daughters in Kyiv. I wouldn’t want to trade places with them. I’m sure you wouldn’t either.
From a financial perspective, investors had been bracing for a possible invasion for much of February. We saw it in increased market volatility and a drop in the major indexes, though the decline up to the invasion was generally modest.
Since peaking on January 3, the S&P 500 Index’s peak-to-trough decline has been 11.9% (through February 23), according to S&P 500 data supplied by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
It’s the first official correction (defined as a decline of at least 10%) since the early days of the pandemic. However, not all the sell-off can be blamed on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Investors are also wrestling with higher inflation and talk of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. But the crisis at hand has driven sentiment in recent days.
Yet strong Q4 corporate profits, according to Refinitiv, and the growing economy have cushioned the downside. It has been a powerful tailwind for investors, but not enough to overcome stiff headwinds from geopolitical uncertainty and talk of higher interest rates.
Russia makes noise before invading
Massing Russian troops along the border of Ukraine created uncertainty for investors. Analysts often say that markets despise uncertainty. We feel that the term “heightened uncertainty” may be a more accurate description, as there is always some uncertainty attached to investing.
When heightened uncertainty arises, it simply means that the number of potential outcomes for the economy is increasing. In most cases, those possible outcomes are usually negative, even if the odds of occurring are remote.
Therefore, short-term investors recalibrate and attempt to discount possible negative outcomes.
Over time, the new reality gets incorporated into the outlook and the focus returns to the domestic economy. That has been the historical pattern. In other words, historically selloffs tied to geopolitical uncertainty have been limited.
LPL Research has compiled the market reaction to 22 geopolitical “market shock events” since WWII. On average, the total drawdown was just 4.6% for the S&P 500 Index.
During the Cuban missile crisis, the S&P 500 lost 6.6% over eight days. At the time, the world appeared to be on the brink of nuclear annihilation.
The biggest decline in LPL’s survey occurred after the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. The index shed nearly 20% in 143 days but managed to erase losses within one year of the attack.
What could happen
How the war affects the U.S. and global economy will ultimately have the biggest impact for investors. What will happen to oil prices? How might sanctions play out? Could we see cyberattacks or a wider war that involves NATO? Will the invasion rein in the Fed’s apparent impulse to boost interest rates at an aggressive pace?
These are difficult questions to answer.
At the same time, stiff sanctions against Russian banks and Russia’s Central Bank did not cause immediate tremors in U.S. markets.
“The U.S. and other Western economies have deployed a set of highly potent financial weapons against Russia with remarkable speed,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economics professor and former International Monetary Fund official.
From a financial perspective–and this is important–Russian oil and natural gas have not been sanctioned.
We feel stocks were priced for perfection heading into 2022. When stocks are priced for perfection and unexpected events occur, we typically see a reset.
In this case, a more hawkish-sounding Fed and Russia’s aggressive posture toward Ukraine provided the perfect pretext for short-term traders to take profits.
While we have been due for a market correction, attempting to time such a pullback is all but impossible. There are those who have been calling for a correction for over a year and found themselves watching the major stock market indexes rise to new heights.
Besides, if you want to time the market, you must be right twice to be successful—near the top and near the bottom. The smartest analysts haven’t figured out that equation. They never will.
Longer-term, the biggest influence over stocks is the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve, and corporate profits, or what we call the economic fundamentals. How the invasion affects consumer psychology will play a big role.
Are people going to avoid dining out, or, for that matter, skip the purchase of an appliance or a planned trip? It seems unlikely.
The direct impact of Russia and Ukraine on the U.S. economy is quite limited. From December 15, 2021 to February 17, 2022, just 4% of the of S&P 500 firms that conducted earnings calls with analysts (earnings calls typically follow the release of an earnings report), cited the word “Ukraine,” according to FactSet.
By contrast, 72% of S&P 500 companies cited “inflation” over the same period. (FactSet)
Indirect concerns might spring from oil prices and certain commodities Russia and Ukraine export.
Control what you can control. What is happening overseas is something you and I cannot control.
Your financial plan helps manage emotions. It is the roadmap to your goals. It incorporates the unexpected potholes you will hit along the way toward your goals.
Just as it helps prevent you from taking on too much risk when stocks are rising at a quick pace, it also helps prevent emotional decisions that are rarely profitable when stocks are declining.
War can take ugly turns, and we are bracing for more volatility. Disappointments could send stocks lower, while positive surprises could boost equities.
We won’t pinpoint a market bottom but in the 32 times the S&P 500 Index has shed at least 10% since 1980 (excluding the current correction), one year after hitting a bottom, the index was up 24.8% on average. It was higher 90.3% of the time, according to [[https://lplresearch.com/2022/02/23/stocks-move-into-a-correction/ LPL]].
In the 13 times the S&P 500 has dropped between 10% and 15% since 1980 (excluding the current correction), the average gain from the low after one year was 21.9%. The index rose in all but one of those instances after one year. (LPL Research)
We realize that market volatility can be frustrating. But through diversification and various measures, we take steps to help manage risk. When corrections end, the historical trends are encouraging.
We understand that news from Ukraine is very unsettling. In the face of overwhelming odds, many of us have been heartened by incredible acts of patriotism, bravery, and defiance from ordinary Ukrainian citizens. Their heroics have inspired us all.
Let’s wrap this up with a broad historical perspective from UBS analyst Art Cashin. When Art began in the business over 60 years ago, a veteran trader told him, “The world only ends once. Don’t bet on the end of the world. The odds are way against you.”
As always, we want to emphasize that we are here to assist you. If you have concerns or questions, please remember that we are only a phone call away.
Table 1: Key Index Returns
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500 Index
Russell 2000 Index
MSCI World ex-USA*
MSCI Emerging Markets*
Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR USD
Source: Wall Street Journal, MSCI.com, MarketWatch, Morningstar
MTD returns: Jan 31, 2022—Feb 28, 2022
YTD returns: Dec 31, 2021—Feb 28, 2022
*In US dollars
Your job as executor of a will
Most of us have watched movies or read books that depict a lawyer reading the will in front of the family. Script writers add to the drama by highlighting the reaction of those who receive and those who have been left out of the will.
Hollywood dramatics aside, it’s an outdated depiction.
Instead, the executor of the will makes sure the wishes of the deceased are carried out. The executor is the fiduciary for the estate, acts in the best interests of the estate, and executes the provisions of the will.
Steps to consider as you fulfill your duty as executor
Cash, bonds, or stocks may have little emotional appeal for the heirs. But the testator’s decision to convey his or her wishes prior to passing regarding treasured heirlooms may help avoid disagreements that can sometimes get out of hand.
You should know we have strategic partners within Concurrent Advisors whose expertise is in the areas of estate planning and financial planning. I you or your family have specific needs or questions you would like to address, feel free to reach out to us.
We are honored and humbled that you have given us the opportunity to serve as your financial advisors. We will never take that for granted.
Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Investable Market Index (IMI) captures large, mid and small cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries (excluding the United States) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 6,211 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the global equity opportunity set outside the US. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index’s three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of William Y. Rice III and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee
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